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Joined 2 years ago
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Cake day: July 6th, 2023

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  • I don’t think that Iran is going to get much useful sympathy from any country not already on its side (and of those, Russia has other priorities). Iran’s ambitions have put it at odds with both Western countries and the Arab world and international law (even if it is on Iran’s side - I don’t know) is never going to lead countries to act against the dictates of realpolitik.

    I also don’t think that failing to destroy these facilities necessarily makes a nuclear-armed Iran inevitable, given that Israel and the USA apparently have total air dominance. The infrastructure needed to deploy nuclear ICBMs can’t all be kept deep underground and Iran’s dependence on oil exports makes its economy particularly vulnerable to strategic bombing. I just don’t trust Trump to see things through if his initial attempts fail - he’s too impulsive. (And I’m not sure the moral calculus remains the same either - it’s one thing to blow up a few underground weapons labs and quite another to engage in a strategic bombing campaign against the entire country.)